“Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens,” said legendary guitarist Jimi Hendrix—a fitting reminder as we reflect on the wild ride that has been the first half of 2025. It turns out we were quite serious when we discussed the likely virulent swings in policy rhetoric out...
Avoid Whiplash! Sharp Rally Highlights Importance of Balanced Positioning
As management theorist and author Peter Drucker said, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” April saw a whirlwind of surprising news flow causing investors to suffer a commensurate roller coaster ride...
Respect Rising Risk and Volatility, but Hold Your Ground
Stock price behavior felt a little crazy in March, sort of like the madness of a recent college basketball tournament, as the S&P 500 index declined in price by roughly 5.8% for the month and the tech laden Nasdaq composite index price was off roughly 8.2%.1 It...
Clear Air Turbulence or an Ugly Lasting Storm? Hold your Ground!
2025 has simply been boring and status quo, right? There’s not much going on in the world or in the headlines. Not! We want to make sure you are awake as you start to read this. As we anticipated, the amount of news flowing out of Washington on the policy front this...
Santa Hit Some Air Turbulence at Year-End. Time for a Rest? Buckle Up!
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” — World-renowned management consultant and author Peter Drucker From an investment return standpoint, 2024 was virtually a replay of 2023. Specifically, the...
Too Much of a Good Thing in 2024—Or Riches Deserved?
It is possible to have too much of a good thing.” – Greek storyteller Aesop “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” – Actress and comedian Mae West A potential Santa Claus rally and post-election bounce that typically appears in the final two months of the...
Trick or Treats as We Move Into Late Fall? Perhaps a Bit of Both.
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. It can intimidate everybody.” —Well-known political strategist James Carville In...
September Fed Rate Cut Melt-Up: Warranted—or Prelude to an October Meltdown?
Statler (S): That was the worst thing I ever heard! Waldorf (W): It was terrible! S: Horrendous! W: Well, it wasn’t that bad. S: Oh, yeah? W: Yeah, it was GOOD, actually. S: Yeah, bravo! S & W: More!! — Excerpt from well-known Statler and Waldorf “Muppets”...
In The End, Rational Thinking Prevails. We’re Maintaining Our Constructive Thesis.
“It doesn’t matter how smart you are unless you stop and think.” —Well-known economist Thomas Sowell Nothing like a little head-spinning drama, eh? That’s what we saw in August as virtually one or two slightly disappointing economic numbers sparked a more than 10%...
Breaking News: It’s OK! Our “Back to Normal” Theme Is Alive and Well.
“It’s déjà vu all over again.”— Yogi Berra The first six months of 2024 were equally as kind to investors as the first six months of 2023. And that’s saying something, knowing that calendar-year total return in 2023 for the full year exceeded 26%.1 Returns for the...
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