"Sell in May and Go Away.” — An old investment adage with roots dating back to 18th century England. Also known as the “Halloween Indicator.” The Santa Claus rally that started in October 2023 and saw the S&P 500 surge by 14% in last year’s final two...
Looking for a Melt-Up, a Meltdown, or Just a Solid Year? We Like Door No. 3!
“We’re runnin’ outta timeSo, tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1999.” – Lyrics from Prince’s song and album of the same name, “1999” The inspiration for famous singer Prince in producing his hit song “1999” emanated from a documentary he saw about Nostradamus, a...
Solid Results and Finish to 2023. Back to Normal Is Our Theme for 2024.
Our theme for the equity market as we approached 2023 was: 2023 is likely to be the inverse of 2022. We’re deeply gratified that this became reality. Unlike many, we expected solid results for stocks this past year, and that is exactly what investors got. This cheer...
More to Celebrate Than Fear as We Head Into 2024
“By rationally looking at long-term trends instead of viscerally reacting to the horror story of the day, you’ll see that there’s much more to celebrate than to mourn.” — The Wall Street Journal, excerpt from “For the New Year, Say No to Negativity,” Dec. 27, 2019...
Why We’re Cautious Near Term and Constructive Longer Term. The Key Is Rates.
As we near year-end, we are cautious about S&P 500 returns in the near term. Our S&P 500 targets for year-end 2023 and mid- to late-year 2024 remain the same at 4,500 and 4,800 to 5,000, respectively. Clearly, these are relatively constructive figures. Our...
It’s A Mad, Mad World… So Mad That We Are Still Outrageously Neutral
“It would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”—Lewis Carroll, “Alice in Wonderland” August didn’t begin so well, as the S&P 500 pulled back about 4.5% through the first three weeks of the month, but it rallied in the final few days to make for a “much...
July Was Another Winner for the Markets…Time for a Breather?
“Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out.” – John Wooden Despite Skepticism, the Rally Is Real The S&P 500 got off to a good start in the second half of 2023, rising roughly 3% in the month of July.1 The Index has risen...
Outstanding First Half. Do We See a Market Upswing or a Fade During the Rest of 2023?
“Extraordinary magic follows you aroundand the camera can’t catch it,you won’t see it in the mirrorbut I see it, I see it…I see extraordinary magic in you.”—Lyric from “Extraordinary Magic” Nasdaq & S&P 500 Advance It’s very hard to come up with a phrase to...
Market Review: Time to Look on the Bright Side?
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle, don’t grumble, give a whistle and … always look on the bright side of life. — Lyrics from “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life” from the film “Life of Brian” Taking a look back at May market activity, the S&P 500 extended...
Stuck in Neutral: Our “Hold Your Ground” Message Plays On
You’ve got yourself stuck in a moment, And now you can’t get out of it.— Chorus from a U2 song Not much has changed in the last six months, going all the way back to November 2022. Since then, the S&P 500 has traded in a relatively tight range of somewhere between...
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